Sci Hub | How to Download Papers from Sci Hub?

Why did Modi's BJP lose the West Bengal Election 2021?

After getting 200+ seats in the West Bengal Legislative Assembly 2021 (Vidhan Sabha), Mamata Banerjee will form the government will absolute majority while BJP's "Parivartan" slogan didn't work this time. 

Lets analyze why things came this way.

See this figure of WB Vidhan Sabha Result 2016, TMC's vote share being 44% and BJP's being 10%. 

West Bengal Vidhan Sabha Result 2016

This can clearly be explained as TMC was able to dethrone the Left who ruled Bengal for more than 30 years. BJP did not have any grass on this fertile soil which was mostly capitalized by the TMC.

Now let's look at the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections, 

2019 Lok Sabha Elections

What changes you can see apart from the huge spike in the Saffron Unit?

Look at  the percentage of vote of INC(Congress) and Left, both being reduced to less than 7% which was earlier close to 20% and 13%.  

Voters shifted from Left and Congress to BJP. 

This same thing also happened this time in the 2021 elections. Left and Congress were decimated in the elections and the traditional voters shifted either to TMC or BJP. But this didn't help the Saffron surge to out-perform the TMC which has ruled for 10 years.

Lok Sabha 2019 Election Result

Reasons for the Saffron surge to halt in 2021

Polarization

BJP is looking for a new model for the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections which doesn't include Polarization in their list. They tried this model in West Bengal before applying it to Uttar Pradesh and finally in 2024. Well that did not work. Who knows, might not on that day also.

If you see Amit Shah's rallies he reframed to use the "Jai Shree Ram" slogan, which is just opposite of what  we saw in 2014. Maybe time to rethink.

Minorities do not support Hindutva Politics

BJP did not have a CM Face

This is also a major point on why BJP lost their ground. BJP needed a face to match Mamata's popularity in WB.  Speculations of Sourav Ganguly(BCCI President) and Mithun Chakraborty(Actor) were there from the camp, but neither showed up. Without a face it was and it is difficult Tigress Mamata. 

Mamata VS ?

BJP is a 'Washing Machine" - TMC

TMC leaders called BJP as a "Washing Machine" as it lured all alleged leaders and whitelisted them. This may cause some damage to the parties image as many leaders fled TMC and joined BJP after getting involving in scams and being raided by agencies. Lack of ground level local leaders added to  the cause.

Corona Pandemic

Due to ongoing Corona crisis and mismanagement by the Central Government regarding Lockdown, Migrant Labour  and Healthcare situation, people are furious at this time which added more pressure to the BJP ultimately chasing them in the elections.

"Outsiders" VS "Nijer Meye"

"Outsiders" - slogan by Mamata played well here as people are Bengal are quite sentimental in their beliefs and traditions. Also Bengal had the tradition of voting against the Centre. "Double Engine Sarkar" failed here. 

The fact that TMC cadre had strong belief on their leader Mamata who led them from the Front.

Prasant Kishore's Strategy

PK and his team helped TMC a lot to ramp up their weak areas after Lok Sabha Elections in 2019. Lot of work has been done by the party to gear up which caused intolerance by many leaders within the party. They joined BJP later which didn't help them, but made ground for TMC to call BJP as "Washing Machine".

IPAC and Prasant Kishore

Nandigram -  What happened there?

Nandigram traditionally the stronghold of the Adhikari Family, was one of the trend setters in the election. 

Why did Mamata contest from there instead of her traditional seat Bhowanipore?

Prasant Kishore - PK is the main culprit here. He is the election strategist for TMC for the 2021 elections. 

Do not forget Modi used the same tactics, he contested from Varanasi instead of BJP's stronghold Gujarat's Gandhinagar.  

The trick is to tell people and party workers that I can lead from the front and we are ready to face any challenge whatsoever in our way. This made an impact in the results as it affects the sentiment of the people.

What we learnt from Bengal Elections?

This election gave Modi a wake up call for the upcoming Uttar Pradesh and 2024 Lok Sabha Elections. Totally depending upon him you cannot win the election. Also Modi is no popular in the State Elections where people trust regional leader and parties. 

Time for BJP to rethink there strategies and act upon quickly before it too late.